New Census Bureau population estimates for 2015 released today continue to show changes in states that will lead to adjustments in congressional apportionment.
The data shows eight states would already gain or lose additional congressional seats from what was officially assigned with the 2010 census, double that shown just last year in the 2014 estimates.
In addition, this will grow to 15 states changing their congressional delegation size if the current trends continue to 2020. For the first time, the Bureau also released estimates of Voting Age Population and their
use signals an interesting twist in the Supreme Court case argued in December.
The Bureau’s 2015 total population estimates would add the states of
Florida and Oregon to the list of states that will gain a seat, if the 2015 estimates were used for apportionment now.
Illinois and Michigan join the list of states that are now likely to lose a congressional seat. Last year’s 2014 estimates already determined that
North Carolina and Texas would be gaining an additional district, while the states of Minnesota and Pennsylvania would lose a congressional
district if apportionment was done with the new numbers.
All other states would keep the same number of representatives they were awarded in December, 2010 when the official 2010 Census numbers were released.
While the Census Bureau has suffered budget cut-backs that have eliminated the production of state level population projections for upcoming decades, Election Data Services, Inc. has instead generated a simplified dataset by projecting forward the rates of change in populations from 2010 to 2015 reported by the Bureau within each state out to 2020.
The change in congressional delegations are the same if either the longer term trend of 2010 to 2015 is used, or a shorter trend of changes from 2013 to 2015 and 2014 to 2015 is utilized. Using this new set of projected 2020
data, the apportionment calculations show that 15 states could
gain or lose districts by the time the Census is taken in 2020 in five years.
Pennsylvania is listed among the states that will lose a district – going from 18 to 17.
To read the entire report, click here.